I think I understand that someone should do a Ph.D. under a strong advisor and have a solid publication record, and I know going to a more prestigious university helps. Now, this is where I get confused. Let's say person A goes to Princeton and person B goes to Iowa State, for example. Let's say person A gets a post-doc at Michigan and person B also gets a post-doc at Michigan. Do people A and B both have an equal chance of getting a tenure track position at for example the University of Oklahoma? I guess what I'm asking is that if someone gets a post-doc at a prestigious university, does it make up for the prestige of where they got their Ph.D.?
The university I'm going to do my Ph.D. in has a nontrivial amount of people that get postdocs at prestigious universities but none of them end up as tenure track professors at universities with a graduate program. A very small number of people ended up at R1 universities past 1990, perhaps several people at my university.
Some famous counterexamples to this are Igor Rodnianski, Aaron Brown, and Ernest S. Croot.
DISCLAIMER: I'm not interested in going on to be a tenure track professor, just curious.