What level would an assistant professor be hired at, if applying to associate professor position at another institution?

Question

If a tenure-track Assistant Professor who will be coming up for tenure shortly (5th year) applies for a tenure-track Associate Professor position at another institution, and the other institution is interested in making the hire, what is the relative likelihood of the following scenarios:

• hired as tenure-track Assistant Professor with shortened tenure clock
• hired as tenure-track Associate Professor without tenure, with tenure decision in a few years
• hired as tenure-track Associate Professor with tenure

(assuming the candidate's record is tenure-worthy at either institution).

Answer 1

Based on what I've heard and seen, most schools fall into the second pattern, with the first and third happening much less frequently. However, I've known all three possibilities to occur. Ultimately, there is no "most likely" or "least likely" option, as it really depends on the rules for tenure promotions at the individual school at which the applicant is being hired.