Would it be reasonable to ask my potential PhD advisor my chances for being accepted?

Question

Recently I've been talking to a professor I highly admire and after a couple rounds of informal interviews, they've agreed to take me on as their PhD student and that I should apply formally to the university. They've told me to tell them once I've done so, so they can forward their recommendation to the folks at admissions that they'd like to take me on as their student. Talking to my peers and professors and given that I meet the minimum admissions requirement, I've been told that the chances of me being formally accepted is reasonably high.

However, I suppose I'm a bit nervous. Due to personal life circumstances, being accepted into a PhD program is quite important to me (albeit, this current program in question is my first choice by far given the nature of their research) but being from a third world country applications fees are very steep for me and I cannot afford to apply to more than a couple programs. In fact, applying to a second program will also be extremely difficult for me and I've left it as a "last case scenario".

I'd rather not air my personal worries (at least to this degree) to this professor lest I inadvertently give them the impression that I'm interested in their program for any other reason than being deeply passionate about their research (which is false - I'm beyond passionate about the work they do), but I would like to know if I have a decent chance of getting in or not so I can pull together the money and apply to another university as well.

TL;DR: Would it be appropriate to ask this professor how high of a chance I have as to being formally accepted by their university?

Thanks!

Answer 1

You can ask, certainly, but unless the supervisor has sole authority to admit you, which happens some places, then expect a noncommittal and largely uninformative answer.

Since there is a committee, I'd assume, similar to the US, that it is the committee that decides. They may be able to take and consider advice from a particular potential supervisor, but probably have other considerations as well.

So, if the supervisor is wise, they won't try to promise things that can't be delivered. Don't take any answer as gospel.

It would be different in a place (Germany) where the supervisors may have power to admit students into their group/lab.

And note that it isn't the "minimum requirements" that should concern you, given what the potential advisor suggests, but the competition for what is likely a limited number of positions given funding and other constraints. And, the potential advisor may have little knowledge about the applicant pool and the level of competition for experience. In that case, even a positive answer from them holds little value.

Answer 2

Asking about "chances to be accepted" specifically is not a good idea. On the one hand estimating this is undoubtedly very difficult, on the other hand it wouldn't actually be useful for you to know whether it is more 50% or 60%. It is very natural to grasp for any additional information in a situation like yours, but most of the time we actually just have to suffer through the anxiety of not-knowing the outcome until the decision is made.

What could be a reasonable thing to ask is whether the admissions process from now on is just a check of your eligibility, or whether you are in competition with other applicants. I'm not sufficiently familiar with the Canadian system to know whether both are options there, but eg in the UK either could be the case.

Answer 3

A counter-view from other answers: At first glance a professor might say "well you should try" - but given the application fees and their affordability, you have a sensible, justified reason for wanting some understanding of whether you have a good chance or not. From your perspective it is risk management.

With that said, perhaps this isn't something I would ask in writing, but if you are able to arrange an "informal chat" with the supervisor then I think it is perfectly reasonable to explain the reasons as you did in the question. I don't think this would give a bad impression - you can explain that you really want to work with them / on their programme, but that you cannot afford to take the risk if it is a very long shot. Bear in mind that they will not be able to give you any certainty, and they may not know at all - but they might be able to give you an assessment of a good or bad chance.

NB I'm writing from a UK perspective, knowing this is a conversation I would be happy to have with an applicant. It is possible that there are cultural differences in Canadian academia. (not least the fact that application fees exist, which I find very odd!)

Answer 4

Where I work, we don’t charge students admission fees but do require them to line up an advisor before they apply. “What are my chances?” is a question that most students have, even if it is just because they are anxious and not (as in your case) for a financial reason. They often do ask me, and I answer them as best I can. It’s a perfectly understandable question and you don’t need to be coy about asking. Your professor might have a pretty good idea of the answer, or they might have no more than a guess, depending on how many times they have been through this before and how closely their previous applicants matched your profile. But I personally wouldn’t go to the effort of supporting a student application if I didn’t feel they had at least a 50% chance of success in their application for a funded position.