Is there a standard model for the number of citations an article will receive over time? If not, is there a good source for data on citation counts for articles divided up over time? Furthermore, does this vary by field
It seems plausible to me that the number of citations decays approximately exponentially, with the rate of decay depending on the article, but I have empirical evidence for this conjecture.
Such a model would be useful because a few years after an article was published, one could use the MLE method to estimate the number of citations the article would receive over any time period. This would allow us to count citations in a way that does not bias older articles, one of the chief problems with straight citation counts. Additionally, it would give us a better idea of the inaccuracies of metrics like impact factor.