I recently got to know that I am third in a shortlist of four candidates for a full professor position in a German university. I am not that experienced about German academia, since I worked in other countries, so far.
Unofficially, I have been told that the first candidate, who is already a full professor, quite likely is not really interested in the position, but rather she/he is trying to negotiate better conditions in her/his current university. I have no info about the second candidate. In case also this second candidate does not accept the job, I would be invited to the negotiation.
According to your experience, what are the chances that candidates, who are not in the top positions of the shortlist, can access the negotiation? In other words, what are the chances that top candidates leave the position to lower-ranked candidates, for any reason?
I have been told that anything could happen, even that none of the shortlisted candidates accepts the position (well, actually I would accept). But I have no clues about statistics. How likely is, according to your experience, that I will be invited to the negotiation? Having a hint would be very useful. Thanks a lot!