I did my undergrad at a school which is near the top in my field of interest, and I'd like to apply to its program in that field. While my application would certainly not make me a more-likely-than-not admit, I think it's competitive enough that applying is worth the time and money. However, the responses to a previous question suggest that applicants like me may be less likely to get in than comparable students who went to a different undergraduate institution. Should I take this into account when deciding whether or not to submit my application?
Some additional information that could be relevant:
- I graduated last year, and have spent that time doing research at a lab which is not affiliated with my undergrad institution. I have done more research here than during my entire undergrad career.
- I am not laser focused on a single research group at this institution, or even a single sub-field. Indeed, one of the reasons that I would like to apply is that it has strong research in more than one of my favorite sub-fields.
- I'm also applying to a few schools in a related but different field this application cycle, and my undergrad institution has a strong program in this field as well. Does this discounting effect apply to admissions committees considering applicants who are changing fields?
In response to the opinion-based hold (which I don't disagree with), I'll try to ask a more specific question. Suppose my probability of acceptance at this top school would be p if I were coming from a roughly equivalent but different school, and my actual probability is q given that I did my undergrad there. What values of q/p are typical? I'd still like to know even if the answer is something like "it varies so much that the value could be 0 or even greater than 1", or "maybe around 0.8 but with a huge standard deviation." I have decided to apply already anyway, but I'm still curious.